In only a few weeks, the United States has walked away — or rather sprinted — from decades of global leadership. It’s unrealistic that another power will fully replace the role America has played in shaping global affairs, but some are navigating how to fill some gaps.
Europe and China both have incentives to step up, for different reasons and with different priorities. Europe is alarmed at what the loss of America’s democratic leadership means for stability and progress around the world. America was on its team, so America’s retreat is costly. China, on the other hand, is smiling since America’s retreat positions it better to influence the world to better serve China’s interests.
Whether the future of the world is more democratic or authoritarian will likely hinge on which of these two powers does a better job replacing U.S. influence and where.
Europe’s most urgent task is to replace the United States as the “Arsenal of Democracy,” a term coined by President Franklin Roosevelt for America’s role in defending democratic allies against fascism in World War II.
This means providing more support to Ukraine, to make up for uncertainty and cuts in U.S. assistance, but also boosting Europe’s own defense capacity so that it can defend itself in the absence of America’s security guarantees. President Donald Trump has not yet pulled out of NATO, but he has repeatedly questioned whether he would come to Europe’s defense.
The European Union has unveiled an $840 billion plan to increase its defense spending, and the German parliament just passed historic constitutional amendments to take on unprecedented levels of debt to facilitate a massive defense investment. It will take time and even more investment, though, to reach European self-sufficiency, including rapidly expanding weapons and defense production at home.
Though the United Kingdom is no longer part of the E.U., British leaders are working closely with their European counterparts to coordinate their response, on Ukraine in particular. As one of two European nuclear powers, the United Kingdom will be vital to developing an independent defense policy for the continent.
If Europe can rise to the occasion, it should be able to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other European targets. If not, aggressive autocrats around the world could learn that violating the sovereignty of weaker neighbors pays off.
Europe is also responding to the gap in free press left by the Trump administration’s gutting of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, the independent agency that oversees Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Radio Free Asia and the Middle East Broadcasting Network. Since World War II, U.S.-funded international broadcasters have worked to provide objective news and information to audiences around the world, as part of America’s commitment to promoting free press.
RFE/RL has provided accurate news across Eastern Europe since the Cold War and today remains vital to countering Russian disinformation about Russia’s war in Ukraine. The E.U.’s head of foreign affairs called RFE/RL a “beacon of democracy” at a meeting of the E.U. Foreign Affairs Council last week where European foreign ministers discussed what they could do to fill the void.
European leaders are alarmed by the broader U.S. foreign aid freeze as well. The Trump administration has slashed at least $54 billion in foreign aid contracts, which undermines critical global health care efforts and essential humanitarian relief, and halted economic development, education and other support that reduces instability and conflict and promotes prosperity around the world. Ending these programs has put millions of lives at risk.
The E.U. called on its member states to urgently work to fill the funding gap by pooling funds and coordinating efforts to save essential programs, including those targeting Ukraine and other European countries, and support for international organizations such as the United Nations.
For China, America’s retreat is all opportunity, as the situation with foreign aid makes clear. China has been competing with America for influence across the globe for decades, particularly in developing countries across the Global South. And now America has unilaterally ceded the fight. China’s influence in the countries it partners with will increase without it having to spend a dime more. America’s reduction in aid has already made China the world’s largest bilateral development partner.
China has expanded its diplomatic presence too, now outnumbering U.S. embassies and consulates around the world for the first time, while the U.S. State Department finalizes plans for further reducing its global presence. This all positions China well for enhanced influence, since presence is a big part of that contest. It not only builds goodwill, since citizens of other countries see what a partner brings to the table, but it also facilitates better understanding of the politics, risks and interests of other countries.
Europe understands these risks and benefits too, but unlike China, it must contend with a diverse set of governments, populations and interests, which could hamper a strong, unified response. But, if Europe wants to shape the world to be more democratic and liberal, it will need to stand and act together, and quickly.
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Elizabeth Shackelford is senior policy director at Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center for International Understanding and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.
